Pecans: a sign of coming hyperinflation

The US and other western countries including Canada, have devalued and are intentionally devaluing their currencies in a vain attempt to remain competitive in the world market.

China is now buying up pecans, about a quarter the North American production, causing the price to shoot up by about 50%.  The Globe and Mail reports:

China bought about 100 million pounds (45 million kg) of pecans in 2009. That was about one quarter of the total pecan crop in the U.S. and Mexico, the world’s largest producers. And it compares with less than 5 million pounds roughly five years ago. The strong demand has sent prices for some pecan varieties soaring to $6.50 (U.S.) a pound, from $4.25 in January, according to Mr. Zedan.

Imagine when China raises the value of yuan against the dollar.  When that happens all commodities will shoot up in price as there will be suddenly a billion consumers with significantly increased buying power.  Meanwhile, forget about those pecan and chocolate cookies we used to eat as kids.  That will become a luxury item.  Food is skyrocketing in price and the Federal Reserve calls this “deflation”.

What if we made nuts the bellweather of inflation?  They are certainly a better indicator than the CPI.

Thank you Ben

On this occasion of the renewed parity of the loonie with the US greenback, I want to publicly thank Ben Bernanke for the wonderful job he is doing as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.  Thank you for making it clear to the world that you want the US dollar to become worthless through low interest rates and quantitative easing.  I’ve been shorting the US dollar in favor of Canadian stocks in the oil and gas and gold mining sectors.  Here is new Ferengi rule of acquisition:  “Never let quantitative easing get in the way of profits.”

The economic consequences of the culture of death

How should the Righteous Investor consider the question of abortion?  Well, it is repugnant from the standpoint of the Christian world view.  But should investors have a different take?  Well, here is a possible consideration.  It is possible to quantify the value of life by multiplying the average earning potential times 38 years (18-65).  The typical human being in the USA should be able to earn a modest $25,000 per year.  In this case, their lives would be worth $950,000 each.  Since there have now been 50 million abortions in the United States, the total value lost equals $950,000*50 million, or 47,500,000,000,000; 47.5 trillion dollars.  Now if we consider that the unfunded liabilities of the United States is around 100 trillion, doesn’t the abortion policy seem quite ridiculous from an investor’s point of view?  The earnings of these dead people could have quite easily made a huge dent in this coming economic meltdown in the United States.

CPI is a lie

The government inflates the currency and then determines the rate of inflation, the so-called CPI.  But the CPI is a lie.  It is supposed to be at or near zero in the US and yet prices for most necessities are increasing.  This year, for the second year in a row, Social Security benefits will not rise for American senior citizens.  So reports Market Watch:

Understand that the CPI does not measure everyone’s cost of living. Rather, it is designed to represent changes in the market basket of goods and services bought by the average household each month.

However, seniors’ market basket is different. It consists mainly of such items as food, energy, taxes, transit fares, tolls and, of course, health care, such as insurance, doctors, prescription drugs, hospitals, assisted living and nursing homes.

These costs are not falling — they are rising quite rapidly. As a matter of fact, health-care costs are just about the only item that did not dip for even one month during the recession.

Shadowstats.com has alternative to the CPI to measure using the data that was in force in 1990, which gives a current inflation rate of about 8%.  Thus, Americans depending on Social Security are rapidly falling behind and the reason is that the CPI is a lie.

The Chief Export of the United States: the US dollar

A few days ago I had a discussion with Andrew regarding whether money is a commodity.  I tended to think of it as an intermediary which made trade possible.  It is far more efficient to trade in dollars than it is to determine what the price of oil should be in corn, iron ore, oranges or rubber.  Therefore, as a store of intermediary value, the trade between trades, money is not really a commodity–i.e., it is not the goal of trade but the vehicle or means to achieving the goal.  So I trade my labor for dollars, and then, my dollars for goods, and so forth.

While reading, “It’s the Money, Stupid: Papering over our economic problems” by Jeffrey Bell and Sean Fieler, it dawned on me something that had puzzled me for many years.  I wondered how the United States has been able to maintain 30-year trade deficit with other countries.  Bell and Fiehler argue that a paper money system, rather than being able to better smooth out downturns in the debt-based business cycle, has become debt itself:

… there is no viable way to maintain the Fed’s current role as guarantor of short-term financial stability and still reform the paper money system so as to remove its tendency toward the unsustainable accumulation of debt. For the paper money system that the Fed manages not only encourages debt, the system is debt.

They continue:

The self-perpetuating feature that has kept this perverse system alive is the dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency. Before the dollar assumed this role between the two world wars, gold—something of independent value and no particular country’s liability—was used to settle international payments between central banks and composed their primary reserve asset. But with the dollar performing those functions, its oversupply has often been absorbed abroad. So Bernanke and his predecessors in the paper-dollar era have been able to print a lot of new dollars, over time inevitably driving down the global value of the dollar, without necessarily generating domestic inflation. That is the enabler of, among other things, relatively painless federal budget deficits. For a red-ink-hemorrhaging Greece or California, the specter of default is always on or near the table. For Bernanke and Congress, colossal deficits are just another day at the office.

Clearly, then, the US is able to maintain the trade deficit because the dollar itself has become sought after international intermediary of trade, not only between US citizens within the borders of the United States, but between citizens of diverse countries trading commodities in dollars on international markets.  The dollar has thus been a useful product.  Furthermore, many countries have vast reserves of US currency and some private citizens living in countries such Russia and Argentina, hold vast sums of US dollars.  So I have finally to suggest that Andrew was right and that we can see money as a sought after commodity in and of itself.  It is a commodity that facilitates trade and makes it possible to quantify, albeit in relative terms, the market prices of diverse currencies and commodities, as well as thousands of products.  The dollar has therefore made the trade deficit possible because the Federal Reserve has had the unique advantage of creating new money as the world’s needs grew.  Countries like China and Japan have trade surpluses with the United States and have built up huge dollar reserves which they can now use to buy supplies or invest.  The dollar itself has been the chief export, and so therefore, there has never been a real “trade deficit”, but rather, a willingness of trading partners to accept the greenback itself in exchange for the goods that they were peddling.  The US has obviously been the winner in this trade since the cost of creating dollars is minimal, especially as compared to the real goods that have been traded from abroad.

Clearly, this is a unique and privileged position that the US dollar enjoys.  It is however not carved in stone that the international community will always trade in dollars.  The Federal Reserve is squandering this status, because it is determined to keep the US afloat by creating trillions of dollars more.  But like any commodity of which there is an oversupply, the value of the dollar will plummet, and then its usefulness as an intermediary of trade will disappear.  At that point the privileged status of the dollar as the chief export of the United States will be lost and there will no longer be a “trade deficit”.  When that happens, goods from other countries will be difficult to obtain, and hyperinflation in the United States will be the inevitable result.