Wine as currency

During difficult economic times, it is often the case that hoarding becomes illegal.  It is punishable by severe fines. In Weimar Germany a law was even passed against gluttony.  Today, the USA faces a serious threat of hyperinflation.  During hyperinflation, paper money becomes worthless and unhelpful in exchange.  Therefore, people resort to bartering goods and services.  Bartering is a form of commerce that is frowned upon by government because it can’t be taxed.  If I fix your plumbing and you fix my roof in exchange, each of us spending three hours to do it, we’ve exchange services but there is no money,  no paper trail, and no receipt.  Two normally taxable events are reduced to zero tax.  So a doctor treats a lawyer’s son and the lawyer draws up the doctor’s will.  Neither reports the activity to the government and no money passes hands. It is just a friendly transaction in an underground economy.

I believe that hyperinflation is an inevitability in the US, and unfortunately here in Canada, there is going to be high inflation.  In such times, it is useful to build up a store of silver or gold.  But personally, I’ve decided to store up something that I could potentially barter.  I have been making wine from concentrated juice, grape juice and from grapes since 2004.  My wines are pretty good; I’d say the equivalent of at least a $10 CDN per bottle at our local provincially control liquor stores (called the LCBO-the Liquor Control Board of Ontario).  Wine is a controlled substance, and so I am not allowed to sell my product without a license.  But when times are desperate, and money is worth nothing, I figure that I should be able to barter bottles of wine for food or other goods and services that I might need.

So I’ve decided to stock up on wine kits.  These kits are $70 for two at Costco, or $45 for one at my local supplier. Each kit contains concentrated juice that will make 30 bottles. I know that the juice remains usable for at least two years maybe more. Once made into wine, the wine can be aged another two years.  It is not certain how long the wine will last after that.  So my minimum cost base will be $1.17 per bottle plus my labor (which isn’t worth anything). If I buy 10 kits at Costco at a price of $300, I’ll be able to hoard 300 bottles of wine in reserve.  This would give me $3000 worth worth of goods with which to barter, and the product itself has an indefinite shelf life.  I estimate that it would be about the same as buying two one-ounce coins of gold, at a cost of $300 CDN.

The great thing about alcoholic beverages is that they do not lose their “currency” in times of depression.  Indeed, people feel the need to celebrate or to drown their sorrows even more during economic hardship than during the good times.  If the economic crisis never comes to Canada, well I can consume my product or give it away as gifts.   Or if the crisis comes and I am unable to barter the product, my wife and I could consume the wine for the calories and it will stave off starvation for a moment.

Krugman vs. Rogers

Krugman and Rogers are publicly exchanging barbs.  Krugman says that Bernanke’s quantitative easing is necessary to stave off deflation.  Rogers says it will cause a collapse of the dollar and surge in commodity prices, i.e., inflation.  Who is right?  Krugman or Rogers, the deflationistas or the inflationistas?

Krugman writes:

I’ve seen Rogers in action; he seemed to me to be confused about issues like the difference between assets and liabilities. And please note that inflationistas like Rogers have been wrong about absolutely everything this cycle (and the last cycle, and the cycle before that). 

[Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-krugman-jim-rogers-has-never-been-right-about-anything]

Now to be sure both men are rich.  But so far I’ve not heard that Krugman has made money investing–his money probably comes from his Nobel prize, writing, book royalties, and media appearances.  Rogers on the other hand is universally recognized as one of the world’s premier investors/traders, along with such names as Warren Buffet and the shady George Soros.  I would tend to accept the advice of a successful  investor over an egghead.

I first heard of Jim Roger’s and his advice to put money on commodities and shunning bonds on January 19, 2009.  I’ve maintained such a portfolio, and I think I’m doing very well thank you very much–not including some serious profit-taking along the way, our current DIY portfolio is 60% above book with mostly oil and gas and gold mining stocks; Rogers would approve.  Had I put my money in bonds, I’m afraid at the dismal interest rates, my portfolio would have slight nominal gains but would have lost some serious buying power.  Rogers is right, his recommendations have worked for investors.  Krugman may end up being one of the most ridiculed and mocked economists of all time.

The deflationista David Rosenberg said that there would be a double dip this Fall.  A friend of mine took his advice and sold some of his oil stocks and now regrets it.  It could still happen.  But my money is on Rogers not Krugman.

The US dollar: America’s greatest export, Jim Grant

At 2:08 in the video below, Jim Grant makes the point that the dollar is America’s greatest export.  A few weeks ago, I argued this very thing as an explanation of the trade deficit: there is no trade deficit, I said, only countries who will trade their goods for US dollars as a commodity in and of itself.  I’m gratified that Grant would come to this conclusion too.  Now consider OPEC.  When OPEC sees the price of a barrel going down, they cut production in order to reduce the supply and get prices back up.  The US Federal Reserve bank with QE is doing the opposite; it is increasing the supply.  The natural result of that will be that the value of the dollar as a commodity will decline.  But we should be forewarned, when the value declines too much, it will  no longer be a useful export, and the world will stop being willing to trade for it.  Then, the US will be in big trouble.

hat tip:  Monty Pelerin

I have a PhD in Theology: Would you like fries with that? (The education bubble V)

Well, I’ve never waited on tables.  But I have driven a delivery truck all around the provinces of Ontario (Nakina, Geraldton, North Bay, Ottawa) and Quebec, (Quebec City, Montreal, Amos, Maniwaki), and as far south as Piqua, Ohio.  So far my total gross pay for work related to my field of study, theology, has been $21,600–or less than the cost of my first-year at Cambridge.

The Chronicle of Higher Education has an article about how 17 million people with a college education are doing menial jobs.  An astounding 8,000 PhDs in the US are are working as waiters and waitresses.

Hattip:  The Business Insider